It is fashionable today to assume that any figures about the future are better
than none. To produce figures about the unknown, the current method is to make a
guess about something or other - called an "assumption" - and to derive an
estimate from it by subtle calculation. The estimate is then presented as the
result of scientific reasoning, something far superior to mere guesswork. This
is a pernicious practice that can only lead to the most colossal planning
errors, because it offers a bogus answer where, in fact, an entrepreneurial
judgement is required.
E. F. Schumacher
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